| Notes |
The 2030 Skills Scorecard
Bridging business, education, and the future of work
This scorecard is a joint publication
by the Global Business Coalition
for Education and the Education
Commission.
The workplace of the future will look very
different from that of today. Automation,
digitization, and other forms of technology
will wipe out millions of jobs while, at the
same time, create many new opportunities.
Next generation workers must be prepared
to participate in what is called the Fourth
Industrial Revolution or Industry 4.0 for
short. Education must rise to the challenge
of delivering the necessary skills for the
future and move beyond the traditional
subjects to include entrepreneurship, soft
leadership, technology, and workforce
readiness.
Estimates 1
indicate that by 2030, there will
be 1.5 billion school-age children in lowand middle-income countries. If current
trends continue, well over half of them —
880 million children — will not be on track
to acquire the most basic skills they need to
succeed in the workforce.2
Countries with rapidly growing youth
populations are most at risk of falling behind.
More than two-thirds of children in
low-income countries — many of them in
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East —
will not be on track to have the skills they
need to succeed in the workplace of 2030.
In lower-middle-income countries this
figure is 60% and for upper-middle-income
countries it is around 40%.
Unless dramatic reforms in delivery,
innovation, inclusion, and financing take
place to change the trends, these children
will be left behind by the global economy.
They are likely to be unemployed, stuck
in poverty, not contributing fully to their
economies and societies, and dependent on
government assistance. The opportunity to
become drivers of — or even participants in
— Industry 4.0 will remain just a dream. The
world’s already staggering income divide will
widen and inequality will grow.
This scorecard highlights the world’s skills
deficit so we can understand it and help
address it. But the picture needs to become
much clearer and we urgently need better
data to inform our actions.3
Large gaps
in learning data persist globally, making it
difficult to address the global skills gap and
plan for the future.
However, this bleak future is not inevitable.
We need to continue to strengthen the
pre-primary and primary-level foundations
of education, but we also need a reimagining
of secondary education to meet the
workforce demands of the future. The
business community needs to be alarmed
and inspired by the magnitude of the crisis
to support and invest in public education
systems so we can dramatically transform
the skills landscape for the next generation.
Under current trends, the workforce
of tomorrow looks woefully
unprepared for Industry 4.0.
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THE 2030 SKILLS
SCORECARD
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INTRODUCTION
Help end the global education crisis.
Learn more at gbc-education.org.
THE 2030 SKILLS
SCORECARD
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is already the world’s
youngest region with three fifths of its
population under 25, and its youth population
is growing at a fast rate. In the coming decades,
one third of global youth will be in Sub-Saharan
Africa. This increase in working-age population
could create a window of opportunity which
boosts productivity and economic growth,
but current employment and skills trends
are worrying. Only 17% of young people are
projected to complete secondary education
with basic skills by 2030; this region will
be home to the largest concentration of
young people not prepared with the skills to
productively participate in the workforce.
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Middle East
and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa region has the
highest levels of youth unemployment of any
global region. Fewer than 1 in 4 youth aged
15-24 is working, which is largely driven
by female youth unemployment. The
unemployment rate for young women exceeds
that of young men by about 20 percent.
By 2030, almost 60 percent of school-age
children are projected to be on track to
complete secondary and attain basic skills, and
the secondary school-age population in the
MENA region is expected to increase by a third.
Projected learning levels by country are mixed,
with strong progress in some countries, and
stagnation in other countries – especially those
countries affected by conflict and impacted by
the refugee crisis.
THE 2030 SKILLS
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Latin America
In order to overcome the middle-income
trap in Latin American countries, there must
be a greater focus on quality education and
increasing the number of skilled workers. Other
regions like East Asia and Europe have achieved
sustained increases in income per capita by
improving the stock and quality of skills and
maintaining openness to innovation. Yet, many
firms in Latin America report that they struggle to
find employees with the right skills. Projections
show that the number of children completing
secondary school and learning basic workforce
skills will improve in all Latin American countries
in the next decade, but still only half of 102
million school-age youth in Latin America are
estimated to be on track to achieve these skills
by 2030.
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Percentage of children
on track to complete
secondary school and
attain basic skills
46%
26%
TODAY
2030
9%
Percentage of children
on track to complete
secondary school and
attain basic skills
50%
37%
TODAY
2030
South Asia
South Asia has experienced some of the fastest
economic growth rates globally. If strong
investments in skills development are made, the
region is poised to maintain growth in the coming
decades. Today, South Asia is home to the
largest number of young people of any global
region, with almost half of its population of 1.9
billion below the age of 24. Youth unemployment
remains high (at 9.8% in 2018) because of changing
labor market demands and over — or under —
qualification of job candidates. In most South
Asian countries, the projected proportion of
children and youth completing secondary
education and learning basic secondary skills is
expected to more than double by 2030. Still, on
current trends, fewer than half of the region’s
projected 400 million primary and secondary
school-age children in 2030 are estimated to be
on track to complete secondary education and
attain basic workforce skills.
THE 2030 SKILLS
SCORECARD
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East Asia and the Pacific
The East Asia and the Pacific region is
characterized by great diversity in terms
of demographics and socio-economic
progress, but common challenges related to
technological change, employment landscape,
and skills shortages are present throughout
the region. Increasing numbers of employers
are demanding highly skilled workers with
transferable competencies like critical thinking,
technical, socio-emotional and cross-cultural
skills. Demographic trends, such as aging
populations and increasing migration within and
across countries, are further exacerbating skills
shortages in some countries. On current trends,
the proportion of children completing secondary
education and attaining basic secondary skills
will reach 79% before 2030. A majority of more
populous low- and middle-income countries
in the region, like Vietnam, Indonesia, and
Philippines, will see strong improvement in
skill levels between today and 2030.
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TODAY
2030 Percentage of children
on track to complete
secondary school and
attain basic skills
79%
30%
TODAY
2030
Region Today 2030
Projection
School-Age
Children in 2030
Sub-Saharan Africa 9% 17% 426 Million
Middle East and North Africa 36% 57% 102 Million
South Asia 26% 46% 404 Million
Latin America 37% 50% 102 Million
East Asia and the Pacific 30% 79% 325 Million
2030 SKILLS SCORECARD
Children on Track to Complete Secondary School & Learn Basic Skills by 2030
Based on current trends 4
To learn more about how you can help end the global education crisis and take
action to improve the skills of the next generation, visit gbc-education.org.
ABOUT
Global Business Coalition for Education
The Global Business Coalition for Education is a movement of businesses committed to
ending the global education crisis and unleashing the potential of the next generation.
Our mission is to ensure that every child has the best start in life, a safe place to learn, and
skills for the future. Established as an initiative of the global children’s charity Theirworld in
2012, the Global Business Coalition for Education is committed to bringing together the
expertise and resources of the business community with the campaign for global education
and Sustainable Development Goal 4.
We serve as the business community’s social impact advisor, combining the expertise
of education and business to develop customized programs and identify investments,
partnerships, and opportunities that will have the greatest impact.
The Education Commission
The Education Commission is a global initiative encouraging greater progress on Sustainable
Development Goal 4 – ensuring inclusive and quality education and promoting lifelong
learning for all. The Commission is helping to create a pathway for reform and increased
investment in education by mobilizing strong evidence and analysis while engaging with
world leaders, policymakers, and researchers.
The Commission was co-convened in 2015 by the Prime Minister of Norway, the Presidents
of Malawi, Indonesia, and Chile, and the Director-General of UNESCO. The Commission
is chaired by the United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education Gordon Brown and
supported by 26 high-level Commissioners.
The members of the Commission include current and former heads of state and
government, government ministers, five Nobel laureates, and leaders in the fields of
education, business, economics, development, health, and security.
gbc-education.org
THE 2030 SKILLS
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ENDNOTES
1. These estimates were generated based on a 2019 update of the Education Commission’s original 2016
projections model for the Learning Generation report, including most recent available data. A background
paper on the Commission model can be found on the Commission’s website.
2. Based on available global data, basic skills for the workplace is measured as a minimum level of secondary
skills, using existing data and minimum benchmarks of “low” levels of achievement on learning assessments,
including those measuring math and science, such as the TIMSS Grade 8 assessment and the PISA
assessment or equivalent regional and national assessments.
3. We use existing historical data and advanced estimation methods to paint the most complete picture
possible for regions. Over the coming year, the Global Business Coalition for Education and the Education
Commission will release country-level skills data to show the divides, gaps and opportunities within regions
and between countries.
4. Regional averages are weighted by population, rather than by country.
REFERENCES
African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET). 2018. Future of Work in Africa: Implications for Secondary Education and TVET Systems. https://mastercardfdn.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Future-of-Workand-Implications-for-Secondary-Education-and-TVET-FINAL.pdf
Asian Development Bank. 2015. Challenges and Opportunities for Skills Development in Asia: Changing supply, demonand, and mismatches. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/176736/challengesand-opportunities-skills-asia.pdf
OECD. 2018. Getting skills right: Chile. Paris: OECD Publ., 2018. http://www.oecd.org/employment/emp/
adult-learning-work-in-social-partnership-2019.pdf
UNICEF. 2017. From Education to Employability: Preparing South Asian Youth for the World of Work. https://
www.unicef.org/rosa/media/1326/file
Weforum. 2018. The Future of Jobs Report 2018. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_
Jobs_2018.pdf
World Bank. 2017. Partnering for Skills Development in East Asia and the Pacific. https://www.worldbank.org/
en/topic/education/brief/partnering-for-skills-development-in-east-asia-and-the-pacific
World Economic Forum. 2017. The future of jobs and skills in the Middle East and North Africa. http://www3.
weforum.org/docs/WEF_EGW_FOJ_MENA.pdf
World Economic Forum. 2018. Latin America has the biggest skills gap in the world. Here’s how to bridge it.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/latin-america-has-the-biggest-skills-gap-in-the-world-here-show-to-bridge-it
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