| Notes |
Igniting Economic and Cultural
Prosperity in North Texas
DFW 2026
REIMAGINE
COMMUNITIES
© 2016 Institute for the Future for Capital One. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
IFTF and Capital One are not associated, endorsed, or affiliated with any of the trademarks referred to in this Report.
The trademarks referred to in this Report are the property of their respective owners.
2
Table of Contents
Foreword From Capital One....................................................................................... 3
Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4
Drivers of Change for North Texas.............................................................................. 6
• Rapid Growth, Diversifying and Aging Population.....................................................7
• Neighborhood Inequality, Social and Economic Disparities .....................................10
• Efforts to Train and Support Middle-Skill Workers ...................................................11
• Smart City Innovations Built on Ambient Computing...............................................12
Forecasts of Change for North Texas ........................................................................ 14
• How We Live: AI-Empowered Individuals ...............................................................15
• How We Learn: On Demand for In-Demand Skills ..................................................18
• How We Work: Monetizing Personal Data Assets ....................................................20
• How We Build Community: Cultural Innovation ......................................................22
Countervailing Forces to Address in North Texas ....................................................... 25
• Connected Technology and Security ......................................................................26
• Job Displacement by Automation...........................................................................27
• Job Competition that Leaves Locals Behind ...........................................................28
• Uncoordinated Regional Planning .........................................................................29
• Community Amnesia .............................................................................................29
Conclusion............................................................................................................ 30
Future Edge DFWSM Strategy.................................................................................... 32
Acknowledgments.................................................................................................. 33
Notes ................................................................................................................................34
3
Foreword From Capital One
You don’t have to know the future - you just need to know the
direction in which it’s headed.
The report that follows is about the direction we’re headed
here in Dallas-Fort Worth: the factors driving our growth,
the individuals who will call this region home, how our
infrastructure will evolve, and the ways in which we will learn
and build community.
We commissioned this report because, as a company and
as a community, we need to be grounded in the information
that will help us determine the best ways to get ready for
tomorrow, today.
Through our Future EdgeSM DFW initiative, we’re working with
a variety of partners to grow the innovation and technology
ecosystem within DFW that will fuel our economy and help our
communities succeed in this rapidly-changing world.
As a member of the DFW corporate community, and as a
forward-thinking technology company invested in the future of
innovation, leadership and community impact in the region, we
will continue to work with clear eyes on the signals and foresight
revealed in this research.
We’re in a state of transformation – one moving faster than any
other time in history – and the future is ours to shape. Our hope
is that what you read here will inspire you. Some of it might give
you pause. All of it should serve as a catalyst for us and our
communities and organizations to play an active role in shaping
our future in DFW together.
Sanjiv Yajnik, President, Financial Services, Capital One
SANJIV YAJNIK, PRESIDENT,
FINANCIAL SERVICES, CAPITAL ONE
INTRODUCTION
5
The North Texas region is globally recognized as an economic
powerhouse. Economists point out that if the gross metropolitan
product of the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area were compared
with the gross domestic product of entire states, the region would
earn ninth place, between New Jersey and North Carolina. And,
if we were to imagine North Texas as a country, it would have the
23rd largest economy, coming in just behind Taiwan.1
How will this robust economy fare in the decade ahead? And, just
as important, how will life in North Texas be altered by a broad
array of forces that will shape individuals and communities? In
autumn 2016, the Institute for the Future (IFTF, a nonprofit,
independent, Silicon Valley–based research organization with
almost 50 years of experience in futures research), in partnership
with Capital One, conducted in-depth research to anticipate
how the experience of living, learning, working, and building
community in the North Texas region might change over the next
10 years. IFTF consulted a diverse set of thought leaders from
the region to gain a broad perspective on future possibilities and
challenges for North Texas.
This foresight report, a result of the research, is not intended to
predict the region’s future. Rather, it is designed to provoke its
readers to think creatively about the future of North Texas and to
take systematic and deliberate actions today to begin to build a
future of inclusive economic and cultural prosperity.
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
In its study of the future of North Texas,
the independent, not for
profit Institute for the Future (IFTF) did
in-depth interviews with
business and economic development
leaders in the DFW area; facilitated a
half-day expert workshop on October
5, 2016 that included a diverse mix of
academic, industry, nonprofit, and arts
leaders; and moderated panel discussions
at the Workforce of the Future Leadership
Summit produced by the Collin County
Business Alliance on October 11, 2016,
and at Techweek Dallas,
November 2–6, 2016.
This study, DFW: Igniting Economic and
Cultural Prosperity in North Texas was
released at Capital One Future Edge
and the Urban Institute's Reimagine
Communities symposium on January 23,
2017 in Plano, Texas.
The qualitative research was supported
by quantitative survey work conducted
by Wakefield Research. The researchers
surveyed 500 adults in the DFW DMA
(designated market area) and 1,000
nationally representative U.S. adults ages
18+ during the period September 22–30,
2016, using an email invitation and an
online survey. The margin of error was
+/- 4.4 percentage points for the DFW
study and +/- 3.1 percentage points for
the nationally representative study. The
findings offer revealing insight into the
public’s attitudes on, assumptions about,
and sense of preparedness for the next
decade. This quantitative research will be
referenced throughout as the Capital One
Future Edge DFW Survey.
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
FOR NORTH TEXAS
7
A convergence of familiar demographic, sociological, workforce,
educational, and technological trends will continue to drive
change in the North Texas region. These key drivers of change
will impact the population, workforce, and technological
infrastructure of the region, and will lay the groundwork for the
directional shifts that will take place over the next decade.
Rapid Growth, Diversifying
and Aging Population
The eye-catching, rapid pace of growth in North Texas shows
no signs of abating over the next decade. The population of the
16 counties that surround Dallas and Fort Worth has already
surpassed seven million, and steady population growth is
expected to continue. For medium-sized cities in the region such
as Frisco, which is routinely listed as one of the fastest-growing
cities in the United States, future growth is expected to exceed
past growth. As Frisco mayor Maher Maso recently put it, “The
majority of people who will live in Collin and Denton counties
aren’t here yet.”2
These millions of new entrants to the area will
undoubtedly shape the future experience of living in North Texas.3
FASTEST-GROWING DFW AREA CITIES
Percentage change in DFW Area cities' population from 2010 to July 2014 for cities
under 50,000 residents
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
78% of DFW
residents would be
likely to recommend
that someone move to
their area for a tech job. – CAPITAL ONE FUTURE
EDGE DFW SURVEY
‘‘
‘‘
80%
60%
40%
20%
0
73.6
53
42.8 39.9 38.6 37.6 36.7
28.1
20.4 16.5
Dish Melissa Fate Little Elm Westlake
Prosper Trophy Club Josephine Anna Sachse
8
Aside from this rapid growth, nearly all demographers agree that
the dominant factors influencing the population of North Texas
are increasing diversity and aging of the population.
The Capital One Future Edge DFW Survey found that 47 percent
of residents view cultural diversity as significantly improving their
neighborhood over the next decade. With growth projected for the
foreign-born and nonwhite populations in the region, North Texas
will continue to diversify. Hispanics will account for the largest
share of population growth, driven by both migration and natural
increase (births over deaths).4
Currently, 2.1 million Hispanics
make their homes in the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington area.5
SHARE OF POPULATION GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY
Share of Change vs. Years
Source: Vision North Texas
80%
60%
40%
20%
0
2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
100%
White Black Hispanic Asian
9
With 17 percent of the population foreign-born, the Dallas–Fort
Worth–Arlington area is among the 10 metropolitan areas in the
United States with the largest number of immigrants.6
And while
the majority of the foreign-born are first attracted to the large
cities, many—notably high-skilled Indian and East Asians—
gradually move to the suburbanized areas. In fact, between 2000
and 2013, the suburbanized areas of the region saw more growth
than the cities.7
In other words, immigrants are not only residing
in Dallas or Ft. Worth; they are also choosing to live in smaller and
medium-sized cities in the region.
The large influx of new entrants (both foreign-born and
relocating Americans) to the region tend to be of labor-force
age, which has tempered the impact of the aging subset of
those who have resided in Dallas for decades. Even so, seniors
age 65 to 84 made up seven percent of the population in 2006
and will be 13 percent of the population by 2030. And the highest
percentage increases between 2006 and 2030 will be in the
age 70 to 79 group.8
15%
10%
5%
0
2006 2030
7%
13%
AGING SUBSET OF DALLAS RESIDENTS
Seniors Age 65-84
Source: Vision North Texas, North Texas to 2030
10
Neighborhood Inequality, Social
and Economic Disparities
Growing income and wealth inequality has been a pervasive
and vexing challenge for the United States and has led to a
shrinking of middle-class or mixed-income neighborhoods in
most cities – and North Texas leads in neighborhood inequality.
In 2015, the Urban Institute reported that the Dallas commuting
zone, home to approximately 3.7 million residents, had the
highest degree of neighborhood inequality of any zone with
at least 250,000 people.9
This study supported the Pew Research Center’s findings that in
2010, 37 percent of low-income households in the Dallas–Fort
Worth–Arlington area were located in neighborhoods in which
a majority of households were low-income, and 23 percent
of upper-income households were situated in neighborhoods
in which a majority of households were high-income. This
means that the area has a high level of what sociologists call
residential segregation by income, and fewer neighborhoods
of mixed incomes (residential segregation refers generally to
the spatial separation of two or more social groups within a
specified geographic area, such as a municipality, a county, or
a metropolitan area). The residential segregation in North Texas
increased by 21 percentage points between 1980 and 2010;
Houston was the only city ranking higher.10
While historical settlement patterns and housing laws may have
helped to create the neighborhood disparities, the rapid influx
of both low-skill, low-wage workers and high-skill, high-wage
workers along with affluent retirees may further exacerbate
these disparities in North Texas.11 If barriers to quality education
and employment are not removed, the growing gap between
the region’s most and least wealthy neighborhoods is poised to
expand over the next decade.
11
Efforts to Train and Support
Middle-Skill Workers
A dynamic and diverse job market has bolstered the steady
influx of workers to the region. Over the next few years, the
North Texas region will experience some of the fastest growth
in middle-skill jobs, or work that requires some postsecondary
education but less than a bachelor’s degree. Many of these jobs,
nearly eight in 10, require digital skills (spreadsheet and word
processing proficiencies, productivity software and computer
networking skills, occupationally specific digital skills for health or
manufacturing work).12 For present and future workers, ability and
knowledge in the digital realm will open the door to more middleskill options and more lucrative opportunities.
Deliberate efforts to ensure that new and long-standing residents
have the needed skills to perform successfully in the middleskill economy will shape the future of work in the region over the
next decade. Equally important in shaping community, however,
will be efforts to ensure that these new jobs and career paths
are respected accordingly, and that middle-skill workers gain
deserved dignity and meaning from their jobs. Middle-skill jobs
should be ideal work opportunities for people without college
degrees, and cultivating both workforce and societal cultures that
appreciate the important contribution that middle-skill workers
make will help sustain employment and enhance the quality of
life for thousands of North Texas residents.
56% of DFW
adults view the access
to quality education
and skills training as a
strength of the region. – CAPITAL ONE FUTURE
EDGE DFW SURVEY
‘‘
‘‘
12
Smart City Innovations Built
on Ambient Computing
Over the next decade, cities and suburbs in North Texas
will leverage ubiquitous connectivity, real-time and big data,
and algorithmic analytics to enable smart city services as
technology invades everyday things and contexts. Here as
elsewhere, our devices will be equipped with digital sensing,
computing, and communication capabilities; computational
power and connectivity will be built into virtually everything; and
reconfiguring our personal technologies will be as simple as
getting into our car or putting on a jacket.
The innovative work of the public-private partnership Dallas
Innovation Alliance (DIA) has catapulted Dallas into the forefront
of smart cities. In September 2016, the DIA received national
attention for its leadership in promoting city-to-city collaboration
through “For Cities, By Cities” and for the launch of the Dallas
Innovation District, which will bring together civic, corporate, and
start-up innovators.13 As industry leaders and public initiatives run
experiments and view Dallas as a test bed for Internet of Things
(IoT) models, ambient computing will profoundly impact the
future of working, learning, living, and building community in the
urban areas of the region.
83% percent of
DFW residents believe
Internet of Things
connected devices
will contribute to a
significant improvement
in quality of life five
years from now. – CAPITAL ONE FUTURE
EDGE DFW SURVEY
‘‘
‘‘
13
To summarize the key drivers of change shaping the next decade
in the North Texas region:
• A rapid uptick in new residents from all over the United
States and the world will intersect with those already
in the region, including the almost 20 percent who are
foreign-born, and the almost 20 percent who are older, to
shape communities throughout the 16-county area.
• A growing wealth and income gap between the most
advantaged and the most disadvantaged neighborhoods
will plague efforts to improve access to education and
employment for all residents.
• Secondary, postsecondary, and workforce training
initiatives will emphasize pathways to upskill workers and
ensure that the workforce has the skills and capabilities to
fill middle-skill jobs and build meaningful careers.
• Investments in both physical and digital infrastructure will
continue, paving the way for ambient computing – the
essential dynamics behind the Internet of Things – to
drive smart city services and urban innovation.
The changing demographics, increasing levels of neighborhood
inequality, evolving skill sets, and emerging technologies create
the backdrop for marked shifts ahead in the experience of living,
learning, working, and building community in the North Texas
region. These directional shifts are described in the next section.
13
FORECASTS OF CHANGE
FOR NORTH TEXAS
15
It’s impossible to predict exactly how key drivers of change will
intersect with other trends and discontinuities to inform our future
experiences, but a systematic scan of present-day practices and
emerging technologies can help narrow the cone of possibilities.
The IFTF futures methodology of signal scanning helps reveal
directional change early. After all, as Sanjiv Yajnik, president
of financial services at Capital One, explained, “You don’t have
to know the future. You just need to know the direction that it
is headed.”14 This section offers four forecasts of change from
IFTF's research, each informed by the drivers in the previous
section and supported by signals.
How We Live:
AI-Empowered Individuals
As ambient computing and coordinating technologies spill
into the cities and suburbs of North Texas, an unprecedented
amount of information will flow through people, objects, and
devices. To navigate the information density of the next decade,
individuals will seek out new tools to parse the onslaught of data
and extract the most relevant information. Fueled by anticipated
breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, personal bots (high-fidelity
intelligent conversational agents) will transform how individuals
interact with digital information and make daily decisions.
WHAT IS A SIGNAL OF CHANGE?
A signal of change is a small or local
innovation that has the potential to disrupt
the status quo if it scales up to occupy
a larger niche or a broader geography.
Unlike drivers of change, signals turn our
attention to possible shifts in direction
before they become obvious, and they
often orient us toward the edges of
innovation and have the potential to
grow in scale and impact. The signals of
change included here are not product
endorsements. Rather, they are examples
of early indicators of change. Signal
scanning captures emergent phenomena
earlier than traditional social science
methods.
16
Over the next decade, personal agents will become as accessible
as smartphones are today. They will be able to read information
from the Web, IoT-connected objects, wearables and lifestyletracking devices, urban mobility data, and other sources in order
to make decisions on behalf of individuals. They will manage
repetitive work tasks, such as calendaring and emailing, and
conduct routine purchasing, such as food and household
shopping. People will rely on their personal agents to track
and monitor information for relevance, anticipate unfavorable
outcomes ranging from traffic congestion to health problems, and
nudge them to act when necessary.
As people develop more trust in their personal agents, just as they
have done with their smartphones, the agents will become close
confidants and advisors, serve as guidance and life counselors,
and even provide emotional support and comfort when needed.
Eventually, as Eric Schmidt, chairman of Alphabet (Google’s
parent company) forecasts, “Advances in artificial intelligence
and machine learning will make each and every human being in
the entire world smarter, more capable, better.”15
16
17
Signals of Change
Viv is an artificial intelligence platform designed to learn your
preferences through self-teaching. Depicting a future in which
“intelligence becomes a utility,” the developers envision that
Viv will be embedded in Internet-connected everyday objects,
facilitating people’s ability to access the “global brain” and
simplifying our daily routines.16
The Capital One skill for Amazon AlexaTM, launched in 2016,
allows bank customers who have an Echo or Echo Dot to
access their financial, auto, mortgage, and home equity loan
account information using their voice. The recently announced
functionality "How Much Did I Spend?" uses natural language to
give users quick access to the information to better understand
their spending patterns.
The Memory Mirror, developed in Dallas by MemoMi Labs
and Neiman Marcus and deployed in select Neiman Marcus
stores, combines a video screen and camera. The mirror gives
shoppers a 360-degree view of their outfit, lets them compare
clothing options side by side, and makes it easy for them to revisit
previous outfits. The mirror also records a password-protected
short video that can be shared with others. Neiman Marcus
has also begun experimenting with Bluetooth beacons to help
personalize shopping experiences by interacting with shoppers
based on their location inside the store.17
18
How We Learn:
On Demand for In-Demand Skills
A combination of drivers is breaking learning—and education
overall—out of traditional institutional environments and
embedding it in everyday settings and interactions, distributed
across a wide set of platforms and tools. Education and training
is moving from a model in which learning is organized around
formal, fixed curricula to a new environment in which learning is
designed to be adaptive and responsive to changing conditions
and skill needs.
Over the next decade, more learning resources will be distributed
across platforms, including peer-to-peer networks and new
mediums like virtual, immersive or mixed reality. For learners
armed with sufficient digital literacy to take full advantage,
continuous learning will be the new norm, and they will dip
into and out of on-demand learning resources to gain new
competencies. Those less fluent in or less connected to the new
learning flows, however, risk being left behind.
Signals of Change
People ForWords is a team effort by Southern Methodist
University (SMU) Guildhall, SMU Simmons School of Education
and Human Development, and Literacy Instruction for Texas
(LIFT) to build an immersive, fun, and effective mobile application
to teach adult literacy. The blending of expertise in game
mechanics, mobile technology, education, and adult literacy
represents a novel approach to increasing the quality of life for
low-literacy adults.
19
General Assembly is the newest code school to open in North
Texas. It joins the Iron Yard, Dev Mountain, and Tech Talent
South to transform the education scene and make learning tech
skills more accessible than ever before. General Assembly also
offers student financing through online lending platforms such
as Pave and Climb, which helps make their classes affordable to
more people.
The Texas Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngters
(HIPPY) Center at the University of North Texas runs a home
visitation program with the mission of increasing school readiness
and parental involvement. Only four percent of three-year olds
and fewer than half of four-year-olds in Texas are currently
enrolled in Pre-K or Head Start, so the HIPPY curriculum,
designed with the TEA guidelines for pre-K and kindergarten
in mind, works to increase the number of children who are
prepared for kindergarten on the first day.18 By flipping the model
and bringing instruction to the home, HIPPY is able to reach
more underserved parents and empower them to be the primary
educators of their preschool children.
The Star, the $1.5-billion practice facility of the Dallas Cowboys
in Frisco, integrates emerging technologies into instruction
and coaching. Experiments there are testing how to improve
the team’s performance with smart, connected, virtual, and
immersive technologies—including the use of drones to capture
real-time views of players on the field from different angles, VR
tech that allows players to view live practice action in 3D, and IoTenabled training footballs to refine how the ball is held.
20
How We Work:
Monetizing Personal Data Assets
A social, economic, and technological transformation is changing
the way we work. Disruptive innovations like Uber, Airbnb, and
TaskRabbit have become not just platforms for consumption
but also entry points for work. Increasingly, people are using
the sharing economy’s abundant platforms to earn a living by
marketing their underused assets—time to drive others around, a
spare room, expertise in putting together Ikea furniture. As more
people routinely take stock of their possessions that could be
monetized, they are also learning that intangible assets such as
reputation and social influence have value. By 2026, more tools
will work to quantify and monetize intangible assets, and new
services will make it possible for individuals to sell, donate, and
share anything, whether tangible or intangible.
A new source of value will emerge as ambient computing and AI
make it possible to constantly track behaviors and interactions
(online and in the physical world) and instantaneously convert
them into mineable data streams. Over the next decade, more
people will realize that their behaviors, practices, and even
their biological information are generating considerable value
for enterprises and organizations. As a result, a marketplace
for personal data will develop. As expressed in a 2011 report
by the World Economic Forum, “personal data will be the new
‘oil’—a valuable resource of the 21st century.”19 Already people
are becoming aware that their health data is an asset that they
can choose to share or not. Ownership of one’s personal data will
drive a new set of entrepreneurs who will actively guard their data
assets and expect remuneration for their use. They will have new
demands for companies that currently extract socioeconomic,
social, location-based, financial, and other types of personal data
as part of the service offering, and enterprising individuals will be
keen to monetize their personal data assets.
21
Signals of Change
The Open Humans Network is an effort by a team of scientists
at Harvard University, New York University, and the University
of California at San Diego to accelerate medical research and
improve human health. Two early projects are American Gut and
Go Viral; the former lets people contribute data about their gut
microbiome and the latter collects fluid specimens from people
when they are experiencing flu or flulike symptoms.
Shoutly is one of a burgeoning set of platforms that turn social
influence into a monetizable commodity. Bloggers scroll through
Shoutly’s marketplace to find products they want to write about
in their blogs and e-newsletters, and on their websites and social
media channels. When followers make a purchase, the blogger is
paid a percentage of the sale.
Depop, founded in 2011 in London, has been described as the
love child of eBay and Instagram—and also as thrift shopping for
millennials. Sellers open their own “Depop shop” and manage
the marketing, pricing, shipping, and customer service related to
the sale of their items. Depop has served as an effective platform
for small clothing stores as well as fashion-forward individuals to
grow their clientele and sales.
22
How We Build Community:
Cultural Innovation
While the DFW region’s fast-growing tech industry is captivating
most conversations about the future of North Texas, it will be the
creative economy of artists, gamers, entertainers, reporters, and
innovators that will both support the economic health and drive
the overall well-being of the region over the next decade. We
often assume that a high-performing economy will bring with it an
increase in overall well-being, but that is not the present situation
in Texas. In fact, as Ann Beeson, executive director of the Center
for Public Policy Priorities, points out, “Despite our state’s wealth,
we’re at the bottom of nearly every indicator of well-being.”20
Creatives play an essential role in drawing a community’s
attention to difficult social and environmental issues such as
unequal access to learning and work opportunities, food deserts,
chronic homelessness, and racial tensions. They also provoke
communities to engage in difficult dialogues and experiment
with innovative solutions. Over the next decade, creatives will
build communities in North Texas through cultural innovation—
pioneering new solutions to the region’s vexing challenges
through novel collaborations and co-creations.
Denver’s mayor, Michael Hancock, speaking of the challenges
facing that city said, “It’s important that we utilize the prosperity
to bring along those who may not have the skills or tools
necessary to come along on their own.”21 Building community
in North Texas over the next decade will similarly depend on
ensuring that the economic upswing isn’t reserved only for the
wealthy and well educated. Embracing and supporting creatives
will be fundamental to ensuring that economic growth and overall
well-being is shared by everyone in the region.
23
Signals of Change
The We Over Me farm at Paul Quinn College in Dallas was
planted on the college’s former football field in 2010 and has
provided more than 30,000 pounds of organic produce in a
federally recognized food desert. More than half the food is sold
back to the local community, and the rest goes to clients like the
caterers at AT&T Stadium. In addition to improving affordable
fresh food options, the farm provides hands-on agricultural
education for youth and adults.22
Make Art with Purpose (MAP) initiates interdisciplinary
collaborations to produce multiform projects that address social
and environmental concerns. It creates artwork to serve as
a platform on which to build public dialogue. In 2014, MAP
launched Dialogues on Race in Dallas, which featured community
murals and billboards. The billboard by artists Rebecca Carter
and Daryl Ratcliff was inspired by the human genome, which
traces back to Africa. As part of the Dialogues on Race project,
a community conversation was held in 2015 with more than
50 people in attendance, including artists and academics,
government administrators, activists, and other professionals.
The Veggie Van driven by farmer Beverly Thomas, the DFW
region’s first mobile farmers’ market, is improving access to
healthy food. This kind of modifiable, lightweight response to
community needs exemplifies the collaborative and creative
spirit that will improve the quality of life for all in DFW. Efforts
by social entrepreneurs like Thomas can be encouraged
by progressive policy changes in land use that allow vacant
and underused lots to be turned into urban farms, as well as
encourage pushcarts, mobile vendors, and temporary stands
to sell fresh fruits and vegetables.
24
Solutions for Dallas Homeless uses its Facebook page to inspire
a participatory research approach to finding new ways of caring
for the city’s unsheltered population. Like many large cities, Dallas
has been struggling to address the chronic and complicated
challenges associated with homelessness. Mayor Mike Rawlings
created the Dallas Commission on Homelessness to analyze
the community’s current efforts, encouraging community
participation to design and develop novel and sustaining solutions
for its homeless members.
In summary, life in North Texas by 2030 will be shaped by the
trends described in the previous section along with directional
shifts marked by:
• empowering individuals through emerging AI
• an ecosystem of lightweight learning platforms for
mastering in-demand skills
• a new form of value creation based on personal assets
• the growing recognition of the important role creatives
play as cultural innovators
In addition, forces that work against the future desired by North
Texans must also be anticipated and thoughtfully explored, as
suggested in the next section.
COUNTERVAILING FORCES TO
ADDRESS IN NORTH TEXAS
26
Expert forecaster Paul Saffo warns, “Don’t mistake a clear view for
a short distance.” Anticipating future directional change can help
us picture how we will live, learn, work, and build community, but
it cannot tell us how or at what pace the future will emerge. The
future is always in process, with some forces propelling desirable
change and others threatening to derail such change. The North
Texas region will need to address a number of countervailing
forces if it is to realize a future of economic and cultural
prosperity for all. This section describes the key countervailing
forces identified by IFTF in its interviews, panel discussions, and
expert workshop with North Texas thought leaders. The hope is
that these descriptions will jumpstart the critical conversations
needed to mitigate the countervailing forces.
Connected Technology and Security
A number of factors need to line up in order for the promise of
a world of ambient computing and empowered AI, including
self-driving cars and smart homes, to be realized. First, we
need the technical capability at scale to enable the networks of
connected technology. Second, we need a cultural shift toward,
and enthusiasm for, connected technology to drive adoption and
use, at both the enterprise and the household level. And third,
we need to develop decentralized crypto-economic systems
to ensure the secure flow of information and capital. Without
a trusted infrastructure that enables secure transport of value
throughout the networks of connected technology, connected
communities will not realize their full potential.
27
Job Displacement by Automation
In a 2013 working paper, the University of Oxford’s Dr. Carl
Benedikt Frey and Dr. Michael A. Osborne estimated that 47
percent of jobs in the United States are at risk of being automated
in the next 20 years.23 When the DFW public was asked about
automation trends in the Capital One Future Edge DFW Survey,
88 percent of respondents remained confident that their jobs
would not be replaced by automation, and 88 percent felt sure
that they have the skills necessary for a tech-related job 10 years
from now. Perhaps residents are optimistic about their ability to
adapt to a changing workplace, but now is the time to jumpstart
important conversations around the pace at which robotics and
machine learning are advancing.
A recent article in Forbes suggests that although technology
will bring significant change to certain aspects of jobs, it won’t
necessarily result in robots completely taking over a given
occupation, and that employees and employers alike can use
strategies to ensure that intelligent technologies augment and
enhance rather than replace human work.24 One thing is for
sure: the skills being taught in traditional school settings and
through on-demand learning platforms should equip future
workers to partner with smart machines and not be replaced by
them. With the proper preparation, and with proactive planning
and transitional structures in place, middle-skill workers can be
amplified rather than replaced by machines. As one executive
remarked, automation will “put the workforce onto bigger,
harder problems.”25
28
Job Competition that Leaves
Locals Behind
North Texas has one of the largest professional workforces in
the country, with broad skill sets in logistics, transportation,
manufacturing, IT, and retail, to name a few. And the diversity in
industries has long been seen as a core strength of the region.
But as the digital transformation under way reshapes business,
all industries will need workers with a similar set of digital skills.
New entrants to the region who arrive with these skills will secure
the jobs that are currently open, and the local population will
need skills training and support to help them compete.
Public and private initiatives are underway to accelerate the
learning curve, but if economic prosperity is to be enjoyed by all
residents, the investments must be thoughtful and long term.
Only 44 percent of respondents to the Capital One Future Edge
DFW Survey anticipated that there will be greater access to
quality education and skills training over the next 10 years; this
is 12 percentage points below the number of respondents who
view present-day learning opportunities as a current strength
for the region. Without clear pathways from career and skill
preparedness courses to actual careers, a sizeable percentage of
DFW residents may not find dignity and meaning in their work.
28
29
Uncoordinated Regional Planning
During the IFTF expert workshop in October 2016, the group coalesced
around an exercise designed to spur discussion and big ideas: What
might a master plan and unified brand for the DFW region look like?
More thought needs to go into determining whether today’s prevailing
culture of co-opetition (cooperative competition) is the right model for
the region’s cities and towns. Given the growth projections, perhaps a
more comprehensive plan of action that covers all metropolitan areas in
the region is needed.
Independent and uncoordinated urban planning may compromise
the area’s ability to improve public transportation, but 53 percent of
residents surveyed expect more transportation options over the next
decade. Similarly, if urban planning is not coordinated, the region may
not be able to develop sufficient affordable housing options (87 percent
of those surveyed do not anticipate the cost of living to decrease in the
next 10 years). And, a lack of coordination may also result in increased
inequity in the region and in municipalities competing for highly
valuable talent such as police, firefighters, and teachers.
Community Amnesia
The allure of the future can overwhelm a community to the point where
residents risk marching forward in pursuit of the Next Big Thing without
reflecting on their history. Especially considering that the majority of
people in Collin and Denton counties have yet to arrive, a deliberate
grounding in the history of the area seems essential to strengthen
the future for North Texas. As one of the experts remarked during
the workshop, “You can’t learn or plan for the future without knowing
history.” Leveraging immersive and smart city technologies can help
bring the history of the region to life, vividly depicting the stories and the
people who came before. Incorporating this history into the future of the
region will enhance cultural prosperity.
CONCLUSION
31
North Texas is buzzing right now. Energy is high and the future
looks bright. Almost 80 percent of respondents to the Capital One
Future Edge DFW Survey consider the region to be a great place
for tech-related jobs and innovation. Considering the North Texas
region’s business-friendly environment and entrepreneurial spirit,
robust economic growth appears likely. But the quality of life in a
certain place depends on more than just economic opportunity.
The experience of living, learning, working, and building
community is informed by a diverse set of factors, some captured
by measuring the health of the economy and others not reflected
in our current economic indicators.
The challenge for business and community leaders in this time of
enviable economic performance is to ensure that the North Texas
region cultivates vibrancy and well-being for all communities,
families, and individuals residing there. As Suzanne Smith,
founder and CEO of Social Impact Architects, explained, “[In]
DFW, we’re known for wide open spaces. And I hope [in the
future] we’re wide open when it comes to opportunity, that we’re
the place to come where you want to build a business, raise a
family, impact your community.”26 Investing in both the economic
and the cultural prosperity of the region is a sound place to start.
32
Future EdgeSM DFW Strategy
DFW is a great place for for technology, innovation,
entrepreneurship and education. The region is a growing,
business-friendly global powerhouse and we’re excited to
be a part of it.
Capital One, for example, is passionate about helping our
communities succeed in a rapidly-changing world and ensuring
that those who live in the DFW area have the resources available
to get ready for tomorrow, today. One way we’ll do that is through
our Future Edge DFW initiative.
Future Edge DFW is a strategic approach to making DFW a
coveted destination for top talent, ensuring our region continues
to be a leading, world-renowned technology hub, and last, but not
the least, nurturing and celebrating leaders of tomorrow.
With Future Edge DFW, we are collaborating with leading
academic, community organizations, and other businesses across
the region, to address areas of critical need such as education,
workforce development and infrastructure, to grow the area’s
innovation and technology ecosystem that will fuel our economy
and help communities succeed in this constantly-changing world.
Working together with our partners, with clearly defined goals and
objectives, will allow us to meet the opportunity for our region and
ensure DFW continues to be an inspiration for all communities,
families, and individuals.
33
Acknowledgments
The author, Rachel Maguire, gratefully acknowledges the
thoughtful ideas and views shared by Girish Bachani, Robin
Bartoletti, PhD, Steven Billingslea, Laura Blair, Rebecca Chesney,
Squirrel Eiserloh, Jana Etheridge, Devin Fidler, Paula Andrea
Gean, Alex Goldman, Marina Gorbis, Rachel Hatch, Hannah
Koski, Cynthia Mulcahy, Vickie Peters, Jonathan Silk, Michael
Sitarzewski, Suzanne Smith, Bill Sproull, Emily Jane Steinberg,
Jeremy Vickers, Alex Voto, Meghan Welch, and Sanjiv Yajnik. The
report was edited by Lorraine Anderson.
About IFTF
IFTF is a not-for-profit (501c3) educational organization. IFTF
collects research findings from a variety of sources using diverse
methods. Some of these methods involve environmental scanning
to collect examples of current innovations to demonstrate and
map future trends. As an educational organization, IFTF strives to
comply with fair use standards and publish only materials in the
public domain. IFTF also publishes materials under the Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license.
34
Notes
1. Bill Hethcock, “If the DFW economy were its own state, or a
country, here’s how it would rank,” Dallas Business Journal, 15
December 2015, http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/2015/12/
if-the-dallas-fort-worth-economy-were-its-own.html.
2. Michael E. Young, “Area Growth in Line with Texas Trend,”
Denton Record-Chronicle, 22 May 2015, http://www.dentonrc.
com/local-news/local-news-headlines/20150522-area-growth-inline-with-texas-trend.ece?ssimg=2306936.
3. Derek Thompson, “Americans Love Big Hot Suburbs,” The
Atlantic, 26 March 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/
archive/2015/03/everybody-is-moving-to-texas/388775.
4. Vision North Texas, North Texas to 2030: Extending the Trends,
http://www.visionnorthtexas.org/regionalchoices/RegChoices_
NorthTexas2030.pdf.
5. Texas Department of State Health Services, Texas Population,
2015 (Projections), https://www.dshs.texas.gov/chs/popdat/
ST2015.shtm.
6. Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Immigrant Population by
Metropolitan Area, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/datahub/charts/us-immigrant-population-metropolitan-area.
7. Jill H. Wilson and Nicole Prchal Svajlenka, “Immigrants Continue
to Disperse, with Fastest Growth in the Suburbs,” Brookings
Immigration Fact Series, 29 October 2014, https://www.brookings.
edu/research/immigrants-continue-to-disperse-with-fastestgrowth-in-the-suburbs/.
8. Vision North Texas, North Texas to 2030.
9. Rolf Pendall and Carl Hedman, Worlds Apart: Inequality Between
America’s Most and Least Affluent Neighborhoods, Urban
Institute, 1 July 2015, http://www.urban.org/research/publication/
worlds-apart-inequality-between-americas-most-and-leastaffluent-neighborhoods/view/full_report.
35
10. Richard Fry and Paul Taylor, The Rise of Residential
Segregation by Income, Pew Research Center, 1 August 2012,
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/08/01/the-rise-ofresidential-segregation-by-income/.
11. The Rise of Residential Segregation by Income.
12. Burning Glass Technologies, “Crunched by the Numbers: The
Digital Skills Gap in the Workforce,” March 2015, http://burningglass.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Digital_Skills_Gap.pdf.
13. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Announcing
Over $80 Million in New Federal Investment and a Doubling
of Participating Communities in the White House Smart Cities
Initiative,” 26 September 2016, https://www.whitehouse.gov/thepress-office/2016/09/26/fact-sheet-announcing-over-80-millionnew-federal-investment-and.
14. Interview with Sanjiv Yajnik in Plano, Texas, 5 October 2016.
15. Sam Shead, “Eric Schmidt: Advances in AI Will Make Every
Human Better,” Business Insider, 8 March 2016, http://www.
businessinsider.com/eric-schmidt-advances-in-ai-will-make-everyhuman-better-2016-3.
16. Steven Levy, “Siri’s Inventors Are Building a Radical New AI That
Does Anything You Ask,” Wired, 12 August 2014, https://www.
wired.com/2014/08/viv/.
17. Sharon Gaudin, “Neiman Marcus Wants to Merge the Online
and In-store Shopping Experience,” Computerworld, 19 January
2016, http://www.computerworld.com/article/3024226/retail-it/
neiman-marcus-wants-to-merge-the-online-and-in-storeshopping-experience.html.
18. Texas HIPPY website, http://hippy.unt.edu/index.html.
19. World Economic Forum, Personal Data: The Emergence of a New
Asset Class, 2011, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ITTC_
PersonalDataNewAsset_Report_2011.pdf.
36
20. Mitchell Schnurman, “How Long Can Stingy Texas Short Public
Education and Remain a Business Juggernaut?” Dallas Morning
News, 18 November 2016, http://www.dallasnews.com/business/
business/2016/11/18/long-can-stingy-texas-keep-shorting-publiceducation-remain-juggernaut.
21. J. B. Wogan, “Public Officials of the Year: Michael Hancock, 2016
Honoree,” Governing, http://www.governing.com/poy/gov-michaelhancock.html.
22. Amy McCarthy, “How a Football Field Farm Helped Bring Back a
Struggling College,” Civil Eats, 26 February 2015, http://civileats.
com/2015/02/26/how-a-football-field-farm-helped-bring-back-astruggling-college/.
23. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of
Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,”
working paper published 17 September 2013, http://www.
oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_
Employment.pdf; later published in Technological Forecasting and
Future Change, available online 29 September 2016, http://www.
sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302244.
24. Jeanne Meister, “Future of Work: Three Ways to Prepare for
the Impact of Intelligent Technologies in Your Workplace,”
Forbes, 6 July 2016, http://www.forbes.com/sites/
jeannemeister/2016/07/06/future-of-work-three-ways-toprepare-for-the-impact-of-intelligent-technologies-in-yourworkplace/#574ae04a410c.
25. Author phone interview with Girish Bachani, 29 August 2016.
26. Author interview with Suzanne Smith, 5 October 2016. |