Simulex

1 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation Alok Chaturvedi, Ph.D alok@simulexinc.com 3000 Kent Avenue, Suite D2-400 West Lafayette, IN 47906 (765) 463-2699 Towards theory-based Synthetic Environment for Computational Experimentation © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation I am believer!! Most models are right!! Data is not the problem!! 2 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation CNN.com October 24, 2005 Explosions rock central Baghdad, Police say 10 killed, 22 wounded in three blasts at sunset BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Three explosions near two hotels housing international journalists and contractors rocked Iraq's capital at sunset Monday, killing 10 people and wounding 22, Baghdad emergency police said. Police said the three blasts were caused by suicide bombers using two car bombs and a cement truck, but journalists in one of the hotels said the first two explosions were rockets, followed by a car bomb. A statement from the coalition press office said the explosions were a combination of rockets and car bombs and that no coalition forces were injured. AlJazeera.com, October 25, 2005 Baghdad hotel attack kills at least 17 Three bombers have staged a coordinated attack on a Baghdad hotel complex used by foreign journalists, killing at least 17 people and ending a lull in violence in front of the world's media. ... it exploded beside a US Bradley armoured vehicle on guard duty,....The explosions were captured in television footage by cameras trained on the area after the first blast and perfectly placed for subsequent detonations. … Two Sunni Arab provinces have returned resounding no votes on the charter FOXNews October 24, 2005 Journalists' Hotel Attacked in Iraq BAGHDAD, Iraq — Three massive vehicle bombs exploded Monday near the Palestine Hotel (search), home to many Western journalists, killing at least 20 people. Dramatic TV pictures showed one of the bombers driving a cement truck through the concrete blast walls that guard the hotel, then blowing up his vehicle. Iraq's national security adviser, Mouwafak al-Rubaie, said the attack — which appeared well-planned — was a "very clear" effort to take over the hotel and seize journalists as hostages. …All three were believed to be suicide attacks. © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Incidence 3 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Incidence © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Modeling Approach (Insurgency Example) Incidence Current Observations - Minority group activism - Orgs involved - Use of weapons - Level of violence - Impact on public opinion - … How to model? Published Data - Data Source 1 - Data Source 2 - … Theory - Deprivation - Org Mobilization - Rebel-greed - Intl Linkages - … Synthetic Data Vulnerability Index ??? … Insurgency Model Aggressor Defense Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Historical Observations … - Minority group deprivation - Expectations/outcome gap - Org affect on perception - Natural resources and conflict - … Combine when modeling Validate synthetic results against observation 4 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Macro to Micro Challenge Using Macro Level Theories to simulate Micro Level behavior leads to a lack of richness in diversity Experiment Reality Diversity Gap Macro Theories Micro Behaviors System Level Observations © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Micro to Macro Challenge Macro Observation Macro Observation Macro Observation Macro Observation Micro Level Theories Using Micro Level Theories to make Macro Level observations leads to a gap in reality Reality Experiment Validation Gap 5 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Computational Experimentation Paradigm WORLD Observations Behavior Estimation Synthetic Environment Theory+Data Validation Assumptions Model Observations Theories of Phenomena Validation Conditional Predictions Model Assumptions Synthetic Observations Theories of Phenomena Validation Conditional Predictions Analytical & Observational Computational Experimentation Domain Models & Theories Human © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Issues in Computational Experimentation.. ƒ High fidelity computational experimentation requires deep understanding of: The underlying Science -- physical, social, computational, life sciences, humanities The computational models • Mathematical equations • Equation free • Differential equations vs Difference equations • Baseball or basketball Representation paradigms -- Common (?) Uniform (?) Diverse (?) Presentations -- digital art (?) semantics (?) ontology (?) storytelling (?) entertaining (appeals to emotions) Platform HPC (?) Peer-2-Peer (Xbox, PS 2/3, PDA) Business models (?) 6 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS Modeling Approach Individual Level Individual Level Group Level Group Level System Level System Level Bottom-up Approach Mathematical Mathematical Models • Validation • Shapes of Curves Emergent Behaviors Advantages •Validity of Emergent Behaviors •Explanation at the individual behavior level Actions •Intervention at the individual level Validity of Behavior Emergent Behaviors Forward Problem Inverse Problem Inverse Problem Nature does not Solve Equations But, we do!! © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation It all starts with an Agent ƒ An agent is defined by its: Traits (demographics, nationalism, religion, etc.) • Social psychology Sensors -- through media, social groups • Communications Expectation and predisposition -- security, education, financial well-being, etc. • Hedonic psychology, economics Perception -- to evaluate sensed information • Psychology, economics Behaviors -- normal or transgressive • Sociology Feeling and emotions -- normal or aroused • Psychology Memory -- short term and long term • Computational neuroscience 7 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Well-being ƒ WB is the cognitive process of evaluation of an individuals life or with the experience of emotions ƒ Understanding the individual within her/his socio-environmental context ƒ It is an integrative theory of human functioning Diener, Suh, Lucas, & Smith, 1999; Kahneman, Diener, & Schwarz, 1999 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Maintained Changes in Well being WB(T0) WB(T1) WB(T2) Circumstance Activity Set Point Sheldon and Lyubomirsky, in Positive Psychology in Practice, 2004 AMM Basic Needs Security Health FOM Religious Political Education Social 8 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Media Agenda Setting Political Economy Social Information Infrastructure Military Status of Media Infrastructure Events Increasing coalition strength for Red Increasing coalition strength for Blue Red (D-) to COI Red (M-) to COI Red (E-) to COI Red (D+ M+ E+) to COI Blue (D+ M+ E+) to Red Blue (D- M- E-) to Red Blue (D- M- E-) to COI Blue (D+ M+ E+) to COI Government Censorship Issue Desires Political Stability Military Strength Economic Stability Social Stability Information Avail Infra Status Issue Salience I I S E M P B F H E Sec FOM P R Soc Perception Filter Increasing coalition strength for Red Increasing coalition strength for Blue Red (D-) to COI Red (M-) to COI Red (E-) to COI Red (D+ M+ E+) to COI Blue (D+ M+ E+) to Red Blue (D- M- E-) to Red Blue (D- M- E-) to COI Blue (D+ M+ E+) to COI PMESII Agenda DImE Agenda Sensors Traits Reports Media Actions Base Attitudes Red Blue Loc Gov Current Attitudes Red Blue Loc Gov Similar evaluations for Leaders, Organizations, and Social Networks © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Media Effect on Emotions Valence Arousal 3 -3 3 -3 -3 3 Sensitization to Negative Valence Desensitization to Positive Valence Media Tone Response Intensity Pro Government Anti-Government Neutral 9 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Model Development Process Requirements and Data Theory and Research Model Development Model Calibration Model Implementation Validation Verification Accreditation 1 2 3 4 5 • Scenario-Specific Research • Documentation of VVA Sources • Scenario Definition • System Nodes • Action Sets • Translation of Theory to Model • Technical Requirements Definition • Integrate customer action sets and system nodes • Integration of Model and SEAS Engine • Iterative Process • Input Simulation Data • Run Model Tests • Evaluate Output Sets • Make Modifications © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation V&V Toolset – Model Bull Pen ƒ Place a model within a “canned” environment and test behavior Test correctness of implementation (verification) Ability to fix random seed ƒ Semantics are very important Initial Conditions Range of inputs ƒ Tools Required Bull Pen configuration loader Bull Pen driver Data Collector Data Visualizer Statistical Analyzer Env1 Env2 Env3 M1 M2 DNA M1 Individual M2 Group M3 M4 Env1 Analysis mode vs Wargame mode 10 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation V&V Toolset – Model Bull Pen Custom scenario parsed from XML and constructed in run-time Driver runs Scenario Visualize scenario outputs © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS VIS, NRT, and SimBridge 11 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS Virtual International System … … AA II EE PP MM SS II World AA II EE PP MM SS II Region AA II EE PP MM SS II Country AA II EE PP MM SS II Province AA II EE PP MM SS II City Virtual International System AA II EE PP MM SS II Province … … AA II EE PP MM SS II Country AA II EE PP MM SS II Province AA II EE PP MM SS II City Visualization Synthetic Environments for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS) is a Computational Experimentation Environment that is: • Theoretically validated, behaviorally accurate, light weight virtual agents for detailed oriented behaviors • Allows human in the loop experimentation for strategic interaction • Detailed environment modeling for accurate interaction and situational context • Emergent agent-environment interaction © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation .. By creating a synthetic environment consisting of nodes* from the Real World .. Open Source Client’s Databases: • Historical • Live • Synthetic Theories Nodes • Citizen • Organizations • Institutions • Infrastructure • Media • Governments *Any object of interest -- contains traits, behavior.. Multiple Perspectives 12 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS-VIS 2006 Capabilities Multi-layer, Multi-Granularity, Effects Based SEAS VIS is a representation of 40 countries with “validated” models (well accepted, published in peer-reviewed journals) Represents • Political Nodes • Military Nodes • Economic Nodes • Social Nodes • Information • Infrastructure • 100+ Named Organizations • 150+ Named Leaders • 1200+ Named Infrastructure Nodes • 500+ Named media nodes 12 Million Active Agents © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Manuf Energy Social Telecom Finance Health Rapidly Configurable Nodes, Emergent Network Labor E m I D S S S S S S E1 E4 E3 E2 E5 E6 Consumers Effects Ports to receive messages Channels to send messages Sensors to sense messages S 13 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation COI (SG) CX CX CX CX CX COI Blue SG: Secessionist Group PMESII: Political CX CX CX Distance/ Opposition Proximity/ Support Highlights • Individual objectives of entities • Objectives are dynamic • Objectives might converge or diverge as the scenario unfolds • Emergence of various alliances based on objectives Some Indicators •Institutionalization • Regime durability • Fractionalization • Legitimacy • Bureaucratic quality • Regime’s responsiveness •Democratization • Political and civil liberties • Freedom of the press © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. PMESII: Political •Blue’s Strategic Objective •Regional – Prevent destabilization of countries • Country of Interest – Prevent state failure – Prosecute GWOT – Prevent spread of WMD •Green’s Strategic Objectives • Maintain territorial Integrity • Restore order • Restore Effective Governance •Red’s Strategic Objectives •Gain popular support •Gain international recognition •CX and Organization Objectives •Individual Objectives N-sided pre-conflict shaping Some Indicators • Dependence • Border disputes • Resource disputes • Terrorism • Trade restrictions QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 14 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation PMESII: Military Some Indicators • Degree of political control over military organizations • Nature of populations support for the military factions • Scope of violence against the civilian population Highlights • Military Institutions, Leaders and Infrastructure as distinct entities • Soldiers and other combatants as extension to citizens • Strategic Will to Fight modeled at Institution Level • Operation Will to Fight modeled at Organization Level • Tactical Will to Fight modeled at Soldier Level © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation The new SEAS-VIS synthetic economy Salient Features: • Conformity with economic theory • Demand driven • Bilateral trade • Close/open economy • Greater international dependence • Black market effects • Greater government influence • Realistic monetary values for all components • Adaptive and emergent Production Inputs Global Trade Network 1. Regulate trade 2. Improve efficiency 3. Stimulate economy 4. Regulate black market 5. Build infrastructure 1 5 2, 3 Oil Gas Power Agriculture Water Telecom Transport Financial Services Manufactu ring Military Industrial Education Consumer Gov Services Demand Labor Infrastructure Exports Black Economy 4 Capital Equipment Imports PMESII: Economy/Infrastructure 15 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation PMESII: Society Highlights •Emergent social networks • Religious, Ethnic and other • Strength of each network changes • Networks are information sources •Social and Religious Organizations •Ethnic and Religious Unrest •Terrorism Propagation Some Indicators • Wealth distribution • Ethnic Identity • Extremism • Xenophobia • Nationalism • Terrorism Multiple Emergent Social Networks © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation PMESII: Information Multiple Sources of Information • Organizations • Media • Social Network • Leaders • Direct sensing Perception and Agenda Setting • Entities perceives information based on certain preconceptions • Entities report information in the agenda setting model based on individual objectives Cultural View Cross Cultural View Social Network Realist View Keynsian View X X X X X X X X X X X Citizen Media Organization Leader Government Environment Social Network 16 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Courses of Action Analysis © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Effects Based Operation R E Observe the achievement level of each Effect over the past 10 days N Select node to act upon to increase the achievement of an effect A Select one or more actions to impose on the node to achieve this effect Set the amount of resources to utilize for this action over 10 day period E A N 17 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Effects Based Plan © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Online Analysis Tools 18 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Dynamic Ontology Development - N-sided view Effect’s trend over time Estimated contribution of Top 10 action/node combinations on the Effect Red Actions Blue Actions Green Actions CX Actions DIME Actions on Node PMESII Nodes Effect under Investigation © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Shared Reality Engine Shared Reality Model 19 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation 3-D models for buildings and City blocks 20 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Developing algorithms for agents to navigate through building and city blocks A* Algorithm Artificial Physics Algorithm © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Capitol Building Evacuation 21 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Capitol Building Evacuation © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Mixed Reality for Concept Development, Testing,Training -- Real Muscatatuck Building virtual placed On Purdue Campus 22 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS-VIS Architecture Geography Population Demographics Well-being & Emotion Behavior Models Media Effect Models Religion Models Continuous Experimentation Scalable Scalable Parallel Parallel Uniform Representation Uniform Representation Multiple Paradigms Multiple Paradigms Sad Happy Content aroused Susceptible Mortality Exposed Infected w/o Symptoms Infected w/ Symptoms Immunize Internet 2 i-light Gigabit Network Internet 2 i-light Gigabit Network Distributed Tera-Scale Computing Capable Traits & Behaviors Well being Contagion Web-based Collaborative Modeling Tools Gaming, Simulation, & Experimentation Framework Agents’ Traits, Emotions, & Contagion Models Population & Infrastructure Models Computational Models -- Palm top to Teraflop Integrated Infrastructure Models © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Geography Indonesia: 10 regions Citizens: 473500 Named Leaders: 9 Named Orgs: 9 Named Media: 9 Specific Sectors: 140 Specific Infrastructure: 406 Total Agents: 474073 23 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Theories: Can we observe them? ƒ Deprivation Theory: examines the range of discriminations and disparities that is experienced by minority groups as contributing factors of rebellion inequity (Gurr 1970, 2000; Schmid 1983; Harmon 2000; Krueger and Maleckova 2002; Duckitt et al. 2002; Post, Sprinzak and Denny 2003; Besancon 2005) ƒ Rebel-Resource Theory: states that depended extensively on natural resources for capital generations were more prone to civil violence (Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Fearon 2004; Weinstein 2005; Regan and Norton 2005; Humphreys 2005; Lujala et al. 2005) ƒ Organizational Mobilization Theory: action and activism is a result of the mobilizational capacity of groups and organizations. (Tilly 1978; Tarrow 1994; Lichbach 1998). © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Data Source (examples) ƒ Groups and Conflict http://www.tkb.org/Category.jsp?catID=1 http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~whmoore/M@R.HTM http://edition.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast /12/04/indonesia.unrest/index.html?related http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast /01/15/indonesia.irianjaya/index.html?related http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3391689.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/1937049.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/1847071.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/1820462.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3815909.stm http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/article.php3?id _article=327 ƒ Political Systems/ Regime Type Polity IV data set http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~phensel/itlpoli.html #regime ƒ Political and Civil Liberties Freedom of the Press 2005: Draft Country Reports www.freedomhouse.org ƒ Ethinc, Linguistic, and Religious Minorities http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~phensel/data.html Minorities at Risk http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~whmoore/M@R.HT M http://www.joshuaproject.net/peopctry.php 24 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Citizens Demographics Shia Sunni Other Religion Indonesia Javanese Acehnese Sundanese Batak Minangakabau Banjarese Bantanese Madurese Buginese Betawi Chinese Malay Other Rich Middle Poor Basic Health Education Financial Political Social Religious Security FOM Local Gov Blue Red Ethnicity Well Being Public Opinion Income Population Indonesia – 240 million © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Orgs Leaders “Named” Leaders/Organizations Organization Power-Ideologue Power-Responsive Affiliation-Ideologue Affiliation-Responsive Opinion Issue Focus Aid Political Orientation Media Capability Economic Policy Societal Orientation Member Opinion Violence Ideology Nationalism Religion Ethnicity Indonesia Yusuf Kalla (VP) Megawati Sukarnoputri Hamzah Haz Husan di Tiro Hashim Mujadi Amien Rais Abu Bakar Bashyir (Leader of MMI) Susilo Yudhoyono (P) Indonesia Golkar PDI P PPP GAM NU Muhamadiya Jemmah Islamiyah MMI Democrat Party 25 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Media/Economic Sectors Indonesia Jakarta Post Indonesia Times Jakarta Times Jaringan Islam Liberal Sinar Harapan Voice of Islam Radio Republik Indonesia Televisi Republik Indonesia Media Broadcast Capability Opinion Agenda Oil Gas Power Education Financial Services Agriculture Water Manufacturing Military Industrial Transportation Telecommunication Government Services Labor Capital Sector Maximum Production Target Imports Target Exports Current Production Infrastructure Status Infrastructure © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Schematic of a VIS Configuration 26 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Insurgency Indicator ƒ Insurgency Indicator, S = total number of mobilized citizens/total population ƒ Intention to Rebel, I = f {grievance, risk propensity} ƒ Grievance, G = f {subjective well-being; legitimacy} ƒ Subjective Well-being, W = f {basic needs, political needs, financial needs, security needs, religious needs, educational needs, health needs, and freedom of movement needs} ƒ Legitimacy, L = f {Government actions; media, organization & leader attitudes} ƒ Risk Propensity, R = f {media, organization & leader actions} © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Scenario A. Pre-Tsunami: Calibrate experimental scenario for Aceh, Indonesia • pre-existing active secessionist movement led by GAM and its leader Hasan Di Tiro B. Immediate aftermath of Tsunami: Insert our best approximation of response to the calamity by the local government and the international community C. Post-Tsunami Recovery: Local Government and International Aid D. Intermediate aftermath of Tsunami: Indonesian Government actions E. Local Government permits greater freedom to citizen and media while interdicting organizations F. Prediction of the outcome of government policies on insurgency indicator. 27 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation C itize n O p in ion o f Gove rnm e n t 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 10 /10/04 10 /24/04 11/7 /04 11 /21/04 12/5 /04 12 /1 9/04 1/2/05 1/16/05 1/30/05 2/13/05 2/27/05 3/13/05 3/27/05 4/10/05 4/24/05 5/8/05 5/22/05 6/5/05 6/19/05 7/3/05 7/17/05 7/31 /05 8/14/05 8/28/05 9/11/05 9/25/05 10/9 /05 10/23/05 11 /6 /05 11 /20/05 12/4 /05 12 /18/05 1/1/06 1/15/06 1/29/06 2/12/06 Aceh Iria n J a y a M a lu ku W ell B ein g 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 10/10/04 11/10/04 12/10/04 1/10/05 2/10/05 3/10/05 4/10/05 5/10/05 6/10/05 7/10/05 8/10/05 9/10/05 10/10/05 11/10/05 12/10/05 1/10/06 2/10/06 Aceh Iria n Jay a Ma luku © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Insurgency Indicator Aceh Irian Jaya Maluku Indonesia A B C D E F Peace Treaty 28 © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation Media, Organizations’, & Leaders’ Attitude Attitude towards Government Attitude towards the Rebel Region B Region C + D Region E + F Leaders Organizations Media © copyright 2004, Simulex, Inc. synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS Summary ƒ Robust, scalable, extensible engine to support a variety of experimentation domains ƒ Persistent experimentation environment ƒ Repository of organizational memories through play books ƒ Plurality of thoughts ƒ An approach to bridge micro-macro divide ƒ Complete transparency of data, algorithms, and assumptions ƒ User configurable and extensible ƒ Multiple courses of action analysis with time travel capability